I would not attack Iran if we knew they were acquiring nuclear weapons.
First, because Iran would not attack us with nuclear weapons. Despite their hatred for the U.S., they do not hate us enough to destroy themselves in the process. Deterrence would clearly remove any incentives to launch an attack.
This has clearly been the case for even the most "irrational" leaders. Even Idi Amin and Qaddafi caved in when their ability to rule was threatened by the British or U.S. Also, there is "two of everything" in Iran. Ahmedinejad, despite being the president, does not control the Iranian military, the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei does. He would be making that decision.
In regard to nuclear terrorism, deterrence checks this as well. There is no reason to think that we would not retaliate against anyone that gave a terrorist nuclear weapons. But I think nuclear terrorism is flawed on a deeper level. My criticism is twofold, first, it is not easy to launch a nuclear weapon. If I came into possession of a nuclear weapon, I could not launch it from my home. It takes expensive technology and facilities that terrorists don't have. This means they would have to use Iran's, thus making deterrence plausible. Second, we're assuming that if terrorists could get nuclear weapons they would. I think this misunderstands the aims of terrorism. Terrorists do not care about wanton havoc as an end in itself, its a means to a political goal. Terrorists would rather opt for conventional, biological, or chemical tools that would allow them to maintain their secrecy and further their political ends. Its much easier to poison our water supply, etc.
Second, U.S. intervention is what causes the sort of hatred that would even make us suspect Iran of being likely of attacking us. This is the CIA's blowback theory, and its supported by plenty of literature on the subject. Terrorists don't hate us because of our freedom, they hate us for our involvement in their regions of the world. Why does Iran resent us? Because we overthrew their legitimately elected leader in favor of the Shah, who, by the way, was pro-U.S. He was also a monarch. Finally they overthrew the monarchy in the 80s, and they still don't have a very high regard for us, go figure.
Third, our actions may actually cause proliferation. India will not sign the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty) because they view it as a mechanism for the U.S. to entrench its interests as a hegemon. North Korea left the NPT and began building nuclear weapons as we attacked Iraq in the gulf war.
Finally, Iran possessing a nuclear weapon may actually be a good thing because it may stop us from acting aggressively. Remember, the only time a nuclear weapon has ever been used is when we possessed them and no one else did. |